Nothing less than the end of the world as we know it – or in Biblical terms: Armageddon, The Final Judgement, The Apocalypse – is the topic of Annie Jacobsen‘s latest dystopian non-fiction book “Nuclear War – A Scenario“. As already the title puts it point blank, she provides a source-based, factual minute-by-minute scenario of the unfolding of an atomic attack against the United States, eventually resulting in full-scale, all-out, global nuclear conflict in as little as 72 minutes. Or: A bone-chilling journey of a little bit more than an hour from first notice of launch to nuclear winter. A book review. By Karsten Groeger.
“In that day the Lord will whistle for flies from the Nile delta in Egypt and for bees from the land of Assyria. They will all come and settle in the steep ravines and in the crevices in the rocks, on all the thornbushes and at all the water holes. In that day the Lord will use a razor […] to shave your head and private parts, and to cut off your beard also. […] In that day, in every place where there were a thousand vines worth a thousand silver shekels, there will be only briers and thorns. Hunters will go there with bow and arrow, for the land will be covered with briers and thorns.” (Isaiah 7, 18-24).
“The first angel sounded his trumpet, and there came hail and fire mixed with blood, and it was hurled down on the earth. A third of the earth was burned up, a third of the trees were burned up, and all the green grass was burned up. The second angel sounded his trumpet, and something like a huge mountain, all ablaze, was thrown into the sea. A third of the sea turned into blood, a third of the living creatures in the sea died, and a third of the ships were destroyed. The third angel sounded his trumpet, and a great star, blazing like a torch, fell from the sky on a third of the rivers and on the springs of water […].” (Revelation 8, 7-10).
Nuclear War – A Scenario- Or: What if Deterrence Fails?
Notice: The following plot does not exactly reflect the content of the book, and is merely based on it.
“Mr. President, we got a Problem!”
The Day without tomorrow starts with a peaceful, sunny morning in early spring. Washington, D.C. awakes, people are grabbing coffee and rushing to work, civil servants enter their offices, government officials and military personnell report to duty. A normal day as usual – like in any other city on the globe.
But suddenly, within the blink of an eye, hell breaks loose. In the Space Force Bunkers in Cheyenne Mountain, Colorado, in STRATCOM Bunker in Nevada and deep below the Pentagon in Arlington alert sirens start to blare: Seconds ago, America’s “Eyes in Space” – the Early-Warning Satellite Systems “SBIRS” (Space-Based Infrared System) detected the launch of an Intercontinental Ballistic Missle (ICBM) of the “Hwasong” class from a mobile launcher in North Korea. Possible Trajectory: Main Land USA. Possible Target: Washington, D.C. Possible Payload: A 1-Megaton Thermonuclear H-Bomb.
But the data is inconclusive yet. In the next seconds and minutes America’s reconnaissance and early-protection machinery fires up to figure out as much data and information about the launch as possible. Tens of thousands of intelligence and military and government personnell are on high alert. The aim: Briefing the President. Fast.
A few minutes later America’s global ground radar systems confirm what everyone fears the most: A hostile nuclear attack on the Capital of the United States was launched. The worst nightmare is about to come true: A bolt out-of-the-blue attack against the noblest country in the history of men. Time to impact: A little bit more than half an hour.
At the same time the President of the United States sits at the Resolute Desk in Oval Office signing paperwork and getting started for today’s business – as suddenly the door is thrown open, military aids and the Chief of Staff with other Senior Officials come storming in. They could have said something like:
“Mr. President, sorry, but we got a problem. Please follow us. We need to get you to Raven Rock immediately. Nuclear Attack is imminent. You need to take action.”
Retaliatory Strike
30 minutes to impact. The President and his senior staff are rushed to Marine One and flewn to Raven Rock Bunker. On the way, the President is briefed about the developing situation of the “bolt out-of-the blue” attack against the Capital of the United States. A 45-lbs (20 kg) ZERO Halliburton Briefcase is placed in front of the President: The Nuclear Football (“The President’s Emergency Satchel”; German: “Der Atomkoffer”). Its contents: The very means for Armageddon – a mobile communications hub to authorize a full-scale nuclear attack against any given enemy. According to the policy of “Launch on Warning” the President is asked to choose targets in North Korea for a retaliatory strike. He has six minutes time. He decides alone. From the “Black Book” the President chooses Pyongyang, Hamhung, Chongjin, Nampo, Wonsan, Sinuiju, Tanchon, Kaechon – a total of 81 North Korean places to burn in nuclear fire, effectively wiping out North Korea from the map. A minute later, dozens of rocket silos across the U.S. open and unleash what is intended to cut down the enemy and make the world tremble: America’s Minuteman III ICBMs. The 60 ft (18.3 m) tall rockets rise into the sky, proudly displaying the Star-Spangled Banner. After a few minutes of initial phase they enter Earth’s space and travel with a speed of 18,000 mph (29,000 kmh) – unstoppable – towards their already doomed targets in the Communist Dictatorship. They cannot be recalled – and need to “fly over” Russia. Russia is informed about the launch and assured that the attack is not directed against them.
Zero Hour
A bright flash of eye-blinding light appears over the Pentagon near Washington, D.C., immediately follwed by a fireball five times hotter than the center of the sun. Everything that exists below and near, virtually everything, ceases to be. The Pentagon evaporates into dust, metal melts and boils, 30,000 employees are turned into burning carbon and just vanishing within the blink of an eye. The firestorm starts to expand concentrically from Ground Zero in all directions, igniting everything. Including humans, turning them into charring remains. In the first instant of the attack hundreds of thousands of people and everything with them are no more. Just black, burned dust. The buildings, structures, bridges, motorways, government agencies, hospitals, hotels, parks, shopping malls and streets of Washington D.C. start to disintegrate, melt and fall apart. Lincoln Memorial and the columns of Jefferson are wiped out and turned into burning stone. Three seconds have passed since impact. The second radiation wave from the bomb burns and poisons another one million people. Nearly everyone of them will die. A few more seconds have passed. What then follows is a hurricane-like, tsunami-like, burning-hot pressure wave moving in all directions with a velocity higher than the speed of sound. In a three-mile (4,5 km) radius everything is wiped out by sheer storm and heat and fire. Air pressure changes cause more buildings to disintegrate. Things like cars and trucks start to fly through the air, electricity and power cables ripping cause more fires to ignite. In a 1.1 mile (2 km) radius nothing exists anymore. The infamous mushroom cloud starts to develop. 35 seconds have passed. As the mushroom cloud grows, it pulls radiating fallout into the sky and into the upper parts of the atmosphere, eventually raining down again and rendering everything radioactive. 2 minutes have passed. More than a million people are dead. Then, the actual inferno starts for all those unfortunate people that are still alive: A firestorm like the seventh realm of hell starts to erupt, ignited by exploding gas pipes, cars, fuel stations, heating tanks and burning debris falling from the sky. Water pipes break, the electric grid crumbles, telecommunication masts are being destroyed. There are no first responders, no emergency services, no cellphone coverage, no internet, no TV, no radio. A seven to eight mile (12 km) radius from Ground Zero is on fire. Nine minutes have passed. In the following minutes an area of 12 miles (20 km) is poisoned with deadly levels of radiation while survivors are on their own, starting to fight for water, food and the most necessary things for survival. 13 to 15 minutes have passed. Civilzation in Washington, D.C. ended.
The Great Misunderstanding
Russia’s early warning systems detect America’s retaliatory strike against North Korea. But the Russians don’t believe in the U.S. reassurance. Due to backward technology Russia believes instead that America’s ICBMs intended for North Korea are, actually, directed against them. As a consequence, the Russian President orders a full-scale nuclear attack onto the U.S. Approximately 1,600 nuclear warheads are fired. The United States immediately strikes back – and fires their remaining active nuclear warhead arsenal (a total of ca. 1,700) via ICBMs, SLBMs from Nuclear Submarines and Bombers onto Russia. Meanwhile, North Korea burns in hellfire. Approximately 45 minutes have passed.
Nuclear Winter
72 minutes have passed. The Northern Hemisphere counts between 3,000 and 4,000 Ground Zeroes – just like in Washington, D.C., Mushroom Clouds pull radioactive earth, dust, debris, smoke, human remains – the remainders of civilization – into the atmosphere, effectively blocking out the sun and its light and its warmth. North Korea, Russia and the United States do not exist anymore. Presidents, governments and civil service members have gone (“Eagle is Down”). After that temperatures start to fall rapidly in America, Canada, Europe and Northern Asia. A shimmering, radiating X-ray light fills the scene. Agriculture becomes impossible because the already contaminated water starts to freeze. Those who survived will eventually starve. Five Billion people are dead. Civilzation as we know it has ended.
“Ein schwebendes Grab im All, auf dem keine Blume wächst. Die Kontinente geschmolzen, die Meere verbrannt – ein schwarzer Stein. Und welch bittere Ironie; Nicht eine einzige Waffe wird den toten Planeten mehr bedrohen.” (Songtext by The Phudys, Eastern Germany, 1984)
“A floating grave in space on which no flower grows. The continents melted, the seas burnt – a black stone. And what a bitter irony; not a single weapon will threaten the dead planet anymore.” (Songtext by The Phudys, Eastern Germany, 1984)
Nuclear War – A Real Scenario?
Annie Jacobsen has once again succeeded in writing a breathtaking, magnificent non-fiction, yet dystopian book. She knows better than almost any other author how to present complex topics that’s complications are largely unknown to the general public – in an entertaining and generally understandable way based on facts, meticulous research and hundreds of interviews.
The danger of nuclear war is more topical than ever. Not only because, compared to the Cold War, nine nations in the world now possess nuclear weapons (USA, Russia, China, Great Britain, France, India, Pakistan, North Korea and – possibly – Israel). Iran, which is currently trying to ignite a conflagration in the Middle East, is also on the verge of arming itself with nuclear weapons. Russia’s nuclear war rhetoric in the context of its illegal war of aggression against Ukraine is also bringing us closer to the abyss than ever before.
Personally, I was and am a supporter of a strong Western deterrent. Our shared values and principles – capitalism, liberty, life, property, the rule of law, equal justice and the pursuit of happiness – cannot be left to the mercy of rogue states by unilaterally abolishing our nuclear weapons.
However, Annie Jacobsen’s book inspires us to rethink our Western nuclear doctrine policies. Does it really make sense to leave the sole decision-making power exclusively with the President? Don’t we perhaps need to rethink the doctrine of “launch on warning” after all? Aren’t we now technically capable of upgrading ICBMs and SLBMs so that they can still be disarmed and deactivated after launch?
And more important than ever: Annie Jacobsen’s book “Nuclear War – A Sceanrio” makes it drastically clear how important it is for people and nations alike to talk to each other and never let communication break down. Or as the atrophysicist Steven Hawking put it in view of his insidious illness: Never stop talking!
I recommend reading “Nuclear War – A Sceanrio” to everyone, but above all to decision-makers in politics. In the West and everywhere else in the world.
A Sneek Peak into the Book “Nuclear War – A Scenario”
About the Author of “Nuclear War – A Scenario”
Annie Jacobsen is a world-renowned investigative journalist, publicist, author and Pulitzer Price Finalist. Born in Connecticut, she worked, among other things, for the LA Times. In her non-fiction, fact-based books she features topics of general public interest such as war, the military, weapon technology, national secrets, government organizations and conspiracy theories in an understandable and easy-to-follow manner – or as she, herself, would put it: “in laymen’s terms”. She wrote, among other things, about DARPA, Area 51, or Operation Paperclip. Her latest book “Nuclear War – A Scenario” was published with the Penguin Publishing Group in March 2024. It is available in German under the title “72 Minuten bis zur Vernichtung – Atomkrieg – Ein Szenario“, published with Heyne Verlag.
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